Stocks are NOT cheap as many pundits would have you believe!

Stocks are cheap based on what metric – P/E??  Those who continue to claim that stocks are cheap right now are using forward P/Es and other metrics based on assumed future earnings, which are nothing more than poor guesses based on inflated expectations for GDP growth and by extension company sales.  There is a systematic failure to understand the fundamental weakness in the methodology for calculating these revenue and earnings estimates that underlie these overly optimistic expectations.  Stocks, in fact, are not cheap at all, if you consider the very real possibility that the economies of the globe, particularly the U.S. and western Europe, are NOT going to grow at a robust pace for the foreseeable future.  Even the so-called BRIC countries, lead by China, are slowing significantly.  The overhang of massive debt is crushing any hope of real growth for the economies of the west.  Once investors adjust their expectations to more realistic levels, stocks will no longer seem cheap at current prices.


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