Netflix – A Screaming Short

For those with the risk capacity to short stocks, Netflix is worth a look.  The stock rallied over 40% today on earnings to about $147 a share.  This company has a history of shooting itself in the foot, and I don’t expect them to do any better going forward.  Competition is immense in this space, and this stock is trading at 510 times earnings – no, this is not a misprint.  There is no way to justify this kind of crazy valuation.  Yes management is projecting strong growth going forward and they did add around 2 million new subscribers during the 4th quarter and about 5.5 million during 2012.  But this is simply not enough to justify the lofty valuation of this company.  Add to this the fact that the markets are at multi-year highs and you have the makings of a steep and sizable fall, should the market correct.  Even without a correction, Netflix will struggle to maintain current levels and in my opinion has no chance of holding here if the market rolls over.  For those who can handle the risk, this is an excellent short opportunity.

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