Significant technical damage threats correction

The NASDAQ Composite has already violated the 3,000 level, closing below it yesterday (Tuesday) and today.  The Dow closed down 25 points today, and is now just 77 points above the 13,000 level.  The S&P 500 closed today at 1,408, just 8 points above 1,400.  These are very important psychological support levels that, once violated, will shake investors who pay attention to technical factors.  The continuing deterioration of the stock market, both from a fundamental (revenues and earnings) and technical (Dow Theory, NASDAQ divergence from the Dow, technical level violations, spiking volatility, etc., etc.) basis is signaling a significant correction to come.  Although we have fallen from recent highs (1,464 on the S&P 500), by about 4%, we are still up substantially from the recent lows (1,266 for the S&P 500), by about 11%.  More importantly, stock valuations are considerably more expensive than they were at the peak of the last rally, which resulted in the S&P 500 climbing to 1,422.  With weakening corporate performance, which again has resulted in highly extended stock prices, there is plenty of room for stocks to fall by even more than they did during the most recent correction, which produced an 11% decline from the previous high.  I expect at least a 15% correct from the most recent high of 1,464, which would place the S&P 500 as low as about 1,250.  I could easily see 1,200 or even lower, if Obama wins and nothing is done about the fiscal cliff – the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts and spending cuts going into effect.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.