Usually positive September may foreshadow a scary October

With Halloween fast approaching, and with only 1 trading day left in September, we have experienced unusually positive performance this month.  Historically, Septembers are the worst month of the year.  So far this month, we are up 2.5%, however, with just one day of trading left.  While this good fortune could certainly persist into October, the majority of September’s gains came in the first two weeks.  More to the point, we experienced those gains due to the Fed’s announcement of QE3 – a third round of quantitative easing in which the Fed has promised to buy $40 billion per month of securities to pump even more liquidity into the economy, and to push long rates down further.  The Dow has advance 11 of the past 12 months, and is no up 23% over the trailing 12 months.  With elections, tax cuts and spending cuts pending, uncertainty in Europe, and weakening economic conditions and corporate profits, I feel it is unlikely that positive stock performance can persist.  Many crashes have come in October, and while I am not looking for a crash necessarily, I am looking for a significant correction, and October could very well be the month in which it happens.


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